Libya

Arabs of different origins (Egyptian, Sudanese, Tunisian, Palestinian, Bedouin, Maltese, etc.) make up the majority of the Libyan population, accounting for approximately 90%. They are followed by the Imazighen (4.7%), Westerners (1%), Indo-Pakistanis and other Asians (around 1%), Nilo-Saharans (less than 1%) and Filipinos (less than 1%). Most Arabs of Libyan origin are of mixed descent, i.e. Arab/Imazighen.

The Imazighen live in small villages in the west of Libya; they tend to identify along tribal or village lines rather than as Libyan nationals. The Tuareg and the Toubou live in the south of the country; they are generally nomadic, moving from one place to another with their livestock and living in tents.¹

Libya voted in favour of the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

General situation

International mediation between the Libyan factions intensified throughout 2018 without, however, culminating in any tangible results. On the ground, the split between the Cyrenaica region (in the east), under the control of Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s National Libyan Army (ANL), and the Tripolitania region (in the west) where Faïez Sarraj’s internationally-recognised “National Union” government sits, remains a gaping one. Two summits involving the main protagonists of the crisis, one in Paris in May and the other in Palermo (Italy) in November, resulted in nothing more than vague declarations of principle.

Exploiting these divisions, core groups of Islamic State (IS) again made their presence felt with a number of high-profile actions, in particular the May attack on the Election Commission, in the heart of Tripoli, where 12 people were killed and seven wounded.

By hosting a further summit in November 2018, the Italian government was seeking to play a role of diplomatic mediation but the recalcitrant attitude of Marshal Haftar threw a shadow over the meeting. The objective of holding elections was upheld but postponed until spring 2019. A “national conference” is scheduled for the spring of 2019 to prepare this electoral timeline.²

Referendum on the Constitution

A referendum on Libya’s new Constitution could take place in February 2019 if the security conditions are met, announced Mr Sayeh, President of the High National Election Commission (HNEC) on 7 December 2018. Mr Sayeh specified, however, that the Commission’s funds were “in the red” and that they would need 40 million dinars (around US$ 30 million) to conduct the process successfully. Validation of the Constitution via a referendum should open the path to legislative and presidential elections in Libya, intended to mark an end to the interminable transition period and to separate the rival camps in this oil-rich country.³